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RunAIVA

Map the forces behind the decision

PolicyGraph turns fragmented signals into weighted relationships. Phil explains where risk is rising, where opportunity is opening, and what matters most.

From signal to decision: chokepoints, contracts, prices, vendors, and policy linked in one explainable model — evidence first, weights second, narrative last.

Critical path (illustrative)

Solid = supported · dashed = gap / inference · thick = higher weight

Phil brief

BLUF: Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz increases LNG and fertilizer stress, with the highest downstream exposure concentrated in import-dependent markets.

Confidence
High (illustrative)
Exposure
Elevated on import path
Critical node
Fertilizer import exposure
Route
Commodity evidence

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How it works

Evidence → relationships → action

Deterministic assembly first; Phil narrates the weighted map — not undirected causal discovery.

Step 1

Collect signals

Contracts, vendors, policies, prices, logistics, and chokepoints from staged DuckDB and curated feeds.

Step 2

Map relationships

Nodes, edges, deterministic weights, dependencies, and explicit evidence gaps — a knowledge map, not a hairball graph.

Step 3

Drive decisions

Phil turns the map into a brief: what matters, how strong the evidence is, where fragility sits, and what to do next.

Two decision modes

Same physics — different battlefields

Federal health capture and global commodity risk sit on one engine: structured evidence, weighted links, explainable output.

Capture / DHA

Concentration, timing, incumbent fragility

Find where recompete windows, task-order concentration, and protest or performance signals create capture openings.

What is KBR's opening in DHA for 2027?

Commodity / market risk

Chokepoints, energy, downstream exposure

Trace how geopolitical or logistics shocks move through energy, nitrogen inputs, and import-dependent end markets.

How does Hormuz disruption affect fertilizer risk?

What makes PolicyGraph different

Built for credibility

Deterministic evidence first

Phil starts from retrievable rows and rules — not speculative graph completion.

Weighted relationships

We rank what matters: evidence strength, impact, and fragility — with gaps called out honestly.

Explainable output

Every brief ties to sources, match strategy, and the knowledge map slice behind the headline.

Reusable intelligence

Save briefs, export NotebookLM-ready text, and run audio narratives from the same envelope.

Live demo

Ask Phil a question

Structured evidence path returns an envelope, deterministic brief, and knowledge map — try a short prompt below.

Results appear here after you run a query.

What matters today

Phil Daily Intelligence Brief

Fertilizer monitors, DHA capture posture, and deterministic Phil readouts — concise executive view.

Updated today

  • Fertilizer Stress band elevated · Tanker posture CRITICAL · EU vulnerability context suggests concen… Infer Band elevated · ACCELERATING — vulnerability rising on gateway concentration and maritime route exposure.
  • DHA Capture HCDS is accelerating toward SAM amendment cadence. $90m vehicle scale concentrates competition; incumbent overlap on scope — near-term solicitation pacing.
  • Cross-domain Cross-domain pressure building where energy, logistics, and capture timelines overlap. Infer joint verification beats single-lane narratives before external comms harden.

Listen

Executive audio briefings

Short listens on capture strategy and fertilizer / energy transmission stress.

DHA Executive Briefing

Winning Defense Health Bids with Data

Structured intelligence, past performance, and risk signals for DHA capture strategy.

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Listen to the briefing

A short audio summary of how a Hormuz chokepoint shock cascades into freight, energy, fertilizer, and vulnerable-country exposure.

Hormuz disruption Tanker / LNG disruption Energy cost pressure Fertilizer cost pressure Vulnerable-country exposure

The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.

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Workspaces

Enter a decision lane

Live snapshot on each card, then a primary action and a Phil quick link.

Fertilizer Watch

Nitrogen logistics, maritime-linked stress, and market monitors.

SITREP — Nitrogen logistics & feedstock stress

ACCELERATING ELEVATED CONF 69%

Stress band elevated · Tanker posture CRITICAL · EU vulnerability context suggests concentration risk is active: summary labels: watch=161; latest trade date 2026-01-01; mean dependency_01 1.000; mean exposure_01 0.000. Treat this as directional exposure evidence for m…

DHA BD Capture Intelligence

Capture matrix, pipeline, and evidence-linked workspace.

PURSUIT — Incumbent fragility mapping

DEFENSIVE 8 nodes

Matrix loaded: 8 pursuit nodes · Framework: Phil Analyst — Evidence + Narrative · DuckDB workspace: offline or tables missing (gateway strip only)

Snapshot partial — contract workspace not fully attached.

DHA Vendor Intel

Prime / parent / recompete map

Prime landscape, market concentration, expiring work, and recompete structure for DHA capture analysis. Data from staged USAspending-derived DuckDB.

PolicyGraph applies the same intelligence framework across different decision environments — contracts, chokepoints, and policy signals on one weighted map.