PolicyGraph

Fertilizer Watch

Monitoring energy-driven fertilizer supply disruption

Lead analyst brief

Live signals read — elevated

A short analyst summary of current market and supply chain signals. The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.

Market Signals

Switch signals to move from price-only to dependency, transmission, and downstream impact.

EU Fertiliser prices

Monthly EU benchmark prices (EUR/tonne). Local CSV → DuckDB.

DG AGRI-style view · PolicyGraph

What this means

Use the EU fertiliser chart as the baseline. Then review one supporting module to understand current operational pressure and market transmission.

Port nowcast (supporting)

Strategic Port Nowcast

Live operating read across key fertilizer gateway and origin ports.

Highest current stress Jorf Lasfar 0.396
EU gateways Antwerp, Rotterdam 2 available
Non-EU exposure Jorf Lasfar CBAM 0.333
Port Role Country Status Latest calls Baseline Stress Confidence CBAM
Antwerp EU gateway Belgium Available 52 56.9 0.086 0.833 0.000
Port
Antwerp
Port id
port57
Country / ISO3
Belgium · BEL
Obs date
2026-03-20
Source
portwatch_daily_ports
Status
available
Latest calls
52.0
Baseline calls
56.9
Stress
0.086115992970123
Stress window
30d
Stress notes
Calls + import/export totals used as capacity proxy.
Confidence
0.8333333333333333
Confidence notes
Derived from Daily_Ports_Data raw layer with 30-day baseline.
CBAM multiplier
1.0
CBAM exposure
0.0
Bridge-mapped
no
Rotterdam EU gateway The Netherlands Available 86 83.27 0.000 0.833 0.000
Port
Rotterdam
Port id
port1114
Country / ISO3
The Netherlands · NLD
Obs date
2026-03-20
Source
portwatch_daily_ports
Status
available
Latest calls
86.0
Baseline calls
83.26666666666667
Stress
0.0
Stress window
30d
Stress notes
Calls + import/export totals used as capacity proxy.
Confidence
0.8333333333333333
Confidence notes
Derived from Daily_Ports_Data raw layer with 30-day baseline.
CBAM multiplier
1.0
CBAM exposure
0.0
Bridge-mapped
no
Klaipeda Baltic port Lithuania Available 8 8.3 0.036 0.833 0.000
Port
Klaipeda
Port id
port579
Country / ISO3
Lithuania · LTU
Obs date
2026-03-20
Source
portwatch_daily_ports
Status
available
Latest calls
8.0
Baseline calls
8.3
Stress
0.036144578313253094
Stress window
30d
Stress notes
Calls + import/export totals used as capacity proxy.
Confidence
0.8333333333333333
Confidence notes
Derived from Daily_Ports_Data raw layer with 30-day baseline.
CBAM multiplier
1.0
CBAM exposure
0.0
Bridge-mapped
yes
Jorf Lasfar Maghreb origin Morocco Available 3 4.97 0.396 0.833 0.333
Port
Jorf Lasfar
Port id
port319
Country / ISO3
Morocco · MAR
Obs date
2026-03-20
Source
portwatch_daily_ports
Status
available
Latest calls
3.0
Baseline calls
4.966666666666667
Stress
0.39597315436241615
Stress window
30d
Stress notes
Calls + import/export totals used as capacity proxy.
Confidence
0.8333333333333333
Confidence notes
Derived from Daily_Ports_Data raw layer with 30-day baseline.
CBAM multiplier
1.1
CBAM exposure
0.33333333333333365
Bridge-mapped
yes
TTF futures context

TTF futures (market)

Daily futures context only; separate from monthly benchmark gas and LNG infrastructure stress reads.

Dutch TTF Futures (TTF=F) 53.25 EUR/MWh As of 2026-04-07T04:00:00 · Yahoo Finance 90d z-score 1.17

Open data source

Futures market benchmark (Yahoo TTF=F) for context only — not LNG infrastructure stress (ALSI/GIE) and not the World Bank monthly benchmark.

Maritime Shock Brief

Scenario briefing combining UNCTAD risk framework with live PortWatch, pricing, and nowcast signals.

Hormuz energy-fertilizer shock

Last updated 2026-03-30T17:48:29.718903

CRITICAL Risk 0.780 Confidence 0.690 Tanker CRITICAL Stress index 0.970 Coverage full PortWatch 2026-03-08 Open report Executive report 🎧 Listen to briefing
Observation Hormuz risk
Strategic impact The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.
Confirming signals
Signal card

EU LNG system stress

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Confidence -
As of -
  • Loading signal drivers...
Signal card

EU gas price stress

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Confidence -
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  • Loading signal drivers...
Causal chain
Exposure and source appendix
Tanker stress summary
CRITICAL (0.970)
Route coverage note
loaded=Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb Strait; missing=Panama Canal
Evidence sources
portwatch_reference.vw_portwatch_tanker_stress_latest; portwatch_reference.vw_portwatch_tanker_transits_90d; strategic_maritime_nodes_45d; vw_port_nowcast_preferred downstream availability; vw_eu_natural_gas_price_recent; eu_fertilizer_prices / fertilizer_price_pressure; event_price_confirmation; Hormuz CRITICAL -> downstream nitrogen dependencies; eu_agri_ref.eu_fertilizer_exposure_latest; eu_agri_ref.eu_fertilizer_policygraph_summary; eu_agri_ref.eu_fertilizer_import_dependency_latest
Watch next (30 days)
Mitigants
Confidence note
overall_risk_01=0.780; tanker_coverage=full; latest_portwatch_obs_date=2026-03-08; contributors=portwatch_reference.vw_portwatch_tanker_stress_latest, portwatch_reference.vw_portwatch_tanker_transits_90d, strategic_maritime_nodes_45d, vw_port_nowcast_preferred downstream availability, vw_eu_natural_gas_price_recent, eu_fertilizer_prices / fertilizer_price_pressure, event_price_confirmation; missing=none.
EU exposure note
EU vulnerability context suggests concentration risk is active: summary labels: watch=161; latest trade date 2026-01-01; mean dependency_01 1.000; mean exposure_01 0.000. Treat this as directional exposure evidence for maritime narratives.
Top exposed member states (detail)
    Top exposed farm groups (detail)
      Import dependency snapshot
      Reference only — not part of risk scoring
      State Product Top origin Top share Label

      Price