PolicyGraph

Fertilizer Watch

Monitoring energy-driven fertilizer supply disruption

Global Fertilizer Risk Network

Track how maritime shocks spread into LNG, fertilizer hubs, and crop-cost pressure.

PolicyGraph links chokepoints, feedstock hubs, export corridors, and downstream markets into one operating picture.

Active nodes 34
Current band elevated
Latest intelligence 5
Primary trigger Strait of Hormuz elevated
Current reality Routing friction rises near Hormuz; Red Sea rerouting keeps freight stress elevated

Global Risk Score

63 elevated

Routing friction rises near Hormuz; Red Sea rerouting keeps freight stress elevated

Downstream Chain

Cause Transmission Impact Downstream

Showing the full fertilizer risk network across chokepoints, feedstock hubs, production hubs, and market regions.

Global Monitor Map

Open full map

Showing every active node and transmission edge in the current watch.

Select a chokepoint to inspect current risk and linked events.

Latest Events

Showing all recent events.

  • 2026-03-10
    Routing friction rises near Hormuz

    Insurance and routing stress increased for vessels transiting Hormuz, raising energy-linked fertilizer disruption risk.

  • 2026-03-09
    Red Sea rerouting keeps freight stress elevated

    Longer routing and insurance premiums continue to pressure fertilizer delivery timing through the Suez lane.

  • 2026-03-08
    Phosphate loading delays reported at Jorf Lasfar

    Terminal delays at Jorf Lasfar are increasing timing risk for phosphate exports into key import markets.

  • 2026-03-07
    Brazil import window tightens at Santos

    Port congestion and higher import replacement costs are pushing up Brazil fertilizer arrival stress.

Core Monitors

67

Current 74 index - Baseline 50 index

Higher gas stress raises nitrogen production and import cost risk.

75

Current 68 index - Baseline 42 index

Hormuz shipping and energy stress can quickly spill into feedstock availability.

59

Current 59 index - Baseline 45 index

LNG delivery delays raise upstream cost pressure on nitrogen production.

69

Current 64 index - Baseline 40 index

Suez friction can widen freight spreads and slow fertilizer delivery to importers.

Ammonia Price

elevated
53

Current 612 usd_t - Baseline 520 usd_t

Ammonia prices are elevated versus baseline and reinforce crop input cost pressure.

53

Current 402 usd_t - Baseline 345 usd_t

Urea export prices are moving above baseline and tightening import affordability.

57

Current 56 index - Baseline 44 index

Potash corridor disruption remains watch-level but can tighten supply quickly.

58

Current 62 index - Baseline 48 index

Brazil import stress remains elevated as landed costs and timing risk increase.

56

Current 67 index - Baseline 52 index

Higher nutrient and freight costs are reducing farm-level affordability.