PolicyGraph

Fertilizer Watch

Monitoring energy-driven fertilizer supply disruption

How this MVP works

PolicyGraph Fertilizer Watch is powered by local JSON seed files. If a local DuckDB is available, the app also reads additive metadata (e.g., company origin anchors and corridor exposure) to improve transparency and audits.

Seed files

monitors.json, events.json, chokepoints.json, companies.json, commodities.json, and timeseries.json provide the full Phase 2 source of truth.

Monitors

Each monitor tracks a simple current-vs-baseline signal for fertilizer risk and is linked to chokepoints, commodities, and companies.

Scoring

monitor_risk = clamp(50 + (delta_pct * sensitivity * direction_multiplier), 0, 100)

delta_pct = ((current_value - baseline_value) / max(abs(baseline_value), 1)) * 100

direction_multiplier = 1 when higher values are worse, otherwise -1.

Source Integrity

SEC-verified share 0% (0 anchors)

Provisional share 0% (high-leverage threshold: 30.0%)

No high-leverage provisional flags detected.

source_integrity_unavailable: CatalogException: Catalog Error: Table with name dim_company_origin_anchors does not exist! Did you mean "commodity_price_comparison"? LINE 9: FROM dim_company_origin_anchors ^

Last updated

2026-04-22

Risk Bands

  • low 0-25
  • watch 26-50
  • elevated 51-75
  • severe 76-100

Monitor Definitions

  • Europe Gas Stress
    Higher gas stress raises nitrogen production and import cost risk.
  • Hormuz Energy Disruption
    Hormuz shipping and energy stress can quickly spill into feedstock availability.
  • LNG Delivery Disruption
    LNG delivery delays raise upstream cost pressure on nitrogen production.
  • Suez / Red Sea Shipping Stress
    Suez friction can widen freight spreads and slow fertilizer delivery to importers.
  • Ammonia Price
    Ammonia prices are elevated versus baseline and reinforce crop input cost pressure.
  • Urea Export Price
    Urea export prices are moving above baseline and tightening import affordability.
  • Potash Disruption
    Potash corridor disruption remains watch-level but can tighten supply quickly.
  • Morocco Phosphate / Jorf Lasfar
    Jorf Lasfar remains a key phosphate export node with moderate stress.
  • Brazil Import Stress
    Brazil import stress remains elevated as landed costs and timing risk increase.
  • Farmer Input Affordability
    Higher nutrient and freight costs are reducing farm-level affordability.