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Hormuz Energy & Fertilizer Shock Report

PolicyGraph decision brief · last updated 2026-03-30T17:48:29.718903 · scenario hormuz_energy_fertilizer_shock

Audio briefing

Listen to the briefing

A short audio summary of how a Hormuz chokepoint shock cascades into freight, energy, fertilizer, and vulnerable-country exposure.

Hormuz disruption Tanker / LNG disruption Energy cost pressure Fertilizer cost pressure Vulnerable-country exposure
Hormuz disruption to downstream food-input pressure

The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.

CRITICAL

March Strait of Hormuz evidence shows sharply reduced tanker transits. Tanker stress CRITICAL · 0.970 · trigger date 2026-03-08.

Executive Alert

CRITICAL risk state with visible Hormuz trigger evidence

The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.

What changed: Hormuz risk

Trigger date 2026-03-08
Overall risk 0.780
Confirmation 0.690
Tanker stress CRITICAL 0.970

Executive summary

  • Risk signal: CRITICAL · overall 0.780 · confirmation 0.690.
  • Transmission: The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.
  • Trigger: Hormuz risk
  • Exposure: Top member states: Lithuania, Ireland, Poland.

Conflict-to-Impact Pathway

Conflict-to-Impact Pathway

01

Hormuz risk

→
02

tanker / LNG disruption

→
03

energy cost pressure

→
04

fertilizer cost pressure

→
05

vulnerable-country exposure

Figures
Figure 1 Strait of Hormuz disruption
Transit and tanker-stress evidence around the trigger window.
Trigger date2026-03-08
Trigger calls1.0
Latest PortWatch obs2026-03-08
Coveragefull

Daily transits trend

Transit trend with the Hormuz trigger marker carried forward from the source bundle.

-15 31 77 123 169 01 Feb 07 Mar
Transit count 4

Latest recorded day shows 4 transits versus a February average of 129.6.

Tanker stress trend

76 109 143 176 210 27 Feb 20 Feb 06 Mar
Dirty tanker index (27 Feb = 100) 154 Clean tanker index (27 Feb = 100) 172

By 6 March 2026 the dirty tanker index reached 3069 and the clean tanker index 1562.

Notes: Transit marker date and stress context are carried forward from the structured source bundle.

Source: PortWatch-derived series integrated in PolicyGraph.

Figure 2 Why this chokepoint matters globally
Trade share, repricing pressure, and exposure concentration.

Share of global seaborne trade

Crude oil 38.0%
Liquefied petroleum gas 29.0%
Liquefied natural gas 19.0%
Refined oil products 19.0%
Chemicals, including fertilizers 13.0%
Container 2.8%

Energy repricing

82 107 133 159 184 27 Feb 02 Feb 09 Mar
Oil (27 Feb = 100) 126 Gas (27 Feb = 100) 174

Oil closed at $91.8/bbl and gas at EUR 55.8/MWh on 9 March 2026.

Vulnerable importing economies

Sudan 53.89%
Sri Lanka 36.42%
Australia 32.16%
United Republic of Tanzania 31.46%
Somalia 30.10%

Borrowing pressure

Iraq 0.637 pts
Bahrain 0.411 pts
United Arab Emirates 0.280 pts
Kuwait 0.275 pts
Qatar 0.274 pts

Notes: Values shown are contextual indicators for executive interpretation, not standalone forecasting outputs.

Source: Trade-share and vulnerability baskets from the report payload.

Figure 3 Fertilizer market stress snapshot
Benchmark stress cards and pass-through context from the current reporting window.

Urea (Granular)

NOLA

$412.5/t

US Gulf · 30d +4.2%

30d range $398.0-$425.0/t

Urea

FOB Egypt

$730.0/t

Egypt · 30d +53.5%

30d range $475.5-$730.0/t

DAP

FOB NOLA

$628.0/t

US Gulf · 30d -1.5%

30d range $635.0-$655.0/t

Potash (MOP Spot)

MOP spot

$285.0/t

global benchmark (spot) · 30d +2.1%

30d range $275.0-$292.0/t

Fertilizer and gas pass-through

61 90 119 148 177 Jan 2024 2024 2026
DAP (Jan 2024 = 100) 105 Urea (Jan 2024 = 100) 141 Gas index (Jan 2024 = 100) 112

Urea moved to 472.0 and DAP to 626.5 by February 2026 while the gas index remained volatile.

Egypt vs NOLA urea spread

Egypt vs NOLA urea

+77.0%

Absolute gap $317.5/t

Critical accent active: spread exceeds 20%.

Notes: Market cards are contextual executive indicators and do not replace full benchmark time-series analysis.

Source: Fertilizer and spread metrics from the structured report payload.

Figure 4 Who is exposed
Member-state and farm-group concentration under the Hormuz scenario.

Exposure is concentrated in Lithuania, Ireland, Poland across the member-state view.

Top exposed member states

Lithuania 72.4%
Ireland 66.1%
Poland 64.1%
Latvia 59.5%
Portugal 57.2%
Show more member states
France53.7%
Bulgaria53.4%
Croatia53.0%
Greece50.9%
Italy50.0%

Top exposed farm groups

Lithuania - (1) Fieldcrops 72.4%
nitrogen - large - moderate_exposure
Ireland - (1) Fieldcrops 66.1%
nitrogen - small - moderate_exposure
Poland - (1) Fieldcrops 64.1%
nitrogen - large - moderate_exposure
Latvia - (1) Fieldcrops 59.5%
nitrogen - medium - moderate_exposure
Portugal - (2) Horticulture 57.2%
nitrogen - medium - moderate_exposure
Show more farm groups
France - (1) Fieldcrops53.7%
nitrogen - medium - moderate_exposure
Bulgaria - (1) Fieldcrops53.4%
nitrogen - large - moderate_exposure
Bulgaria - (1) Fieldcrops53.1%
nitrogen - small - moderate_exposure
Croatia - (1) Fieldcrops53.0%
nitrogen - large - moderate_exposure
France - (1) Fieldcrops51.8%
nitrogen - large - moderate_exposure

Notes: Exposure rankings are scenario-scoped and intended for comparative review within this report context.

Source: Exposure lists from the report payload.

Recommended Actions

Recommended Actions

•

Monitor chokepoint stress

Track tanker transits, insurance costs, and freight conditions affecting Gulf-linked cargoes.

•

Protect nitrogen exposure

Assess LNG and nitrogen-linked procurement against current energy repricing and shipping disruption.

•

Sequence procurement decisions

Review planting windows, inventory cover, and substitution options before market stress spreads further.

•

Watch next

Tanker transits and stress level

•

Watch next

freight and insurance pressure

•

Watch next

delivery timing and vulnerable-country access

Technical Notes

Technical Notes

  • Hormuz scenario only (`hormuz_energy_fertilizer_shock`).
  • CRITICAL display override remains March-specific and uses the low-transit trigger date when available.
  • Charts come from local UNCTAD/IMF-derived CSV bundles plus structured GEMINI fertilizer signals.