PolicyGraph
Monitoring energy-driven fertilizer supply disruption
PolicyGraph · Hormuz scenario · Local UNCTAD data layer
The Strait of Hormuz moves a major share of global seaborne oil, LNG, and fertilizer-linked trade. Local UNCTAD chart data below illustrates how chokepoint stress propagates into energy, freight, farm input costs, and vulnerable economies—enriched with PolicyGraph scoring and EU exposure context.
Market signal figure
Elevated · 0.631 · Confidence 0.750 · Stale
Both series use a fixed 0.0-1.0 stress scale.
Elevated · 0.631 · Confidence 0.750 · Stale
EU LNG system stress is elevated as of 2026-03-31. Inventory remains below seasonal norm while send-out pressure is contributing to stress.
Elevated · 0.588 · Confidence 0.879 · Blended Market Plus Structural
EU gas blended market stress is elevated as of 2026-03-31. The signal blends a fast market read with a lagging structural monthly benchmark. Structural=0.72, market=0.50. Blended gas signal from market + structural baseline using weights market=0.60, baseline=0.40.
Infrastructure stress is elevated and gas-price action is confirming broader market pressure.
World Bank blog PDFs and similar sources are narrative evidence for briefs and citations. Canonical EU gas / Japan LNG / fertilizer levels come from the Pink Sheet CSV or workbook—not from these PDFs.
World Bank market commentary, 09 Mar 2026: February energy prices softened overall (energy price index −0.5% m/m). The blog's monthly-change chart lists Natural gas, Europe at −4.41% and Liquefied natural gas, Japan at −0.16% (February vs January). Fertilizer prices rose 6.5%; the blog also cites a large decline in U.S. natural gas (−52.3%). Canonical monthly price levels remain the World Bank Pink Sheet CSV / workbook—not this PDF.
Supports Hormuz / market briefs with an external monthly commodity narrative: soft energy index, weaker European gas and Japan LNG on a m/m basis in the blog chart, firmer fertilizer headline, while ALSI/GIE continues to carry LNG infrastructure stress.
ALSI snapshot
LNG stress vs Hormuz corridor weights · latest gas day.
Gas day 2026-03-31. Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), ALSI transparency platform
| Country | Risk band | Exposure score | Send-out util. | Inventory % | Hormuz weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | high | 0.706 | 0.764 | 0.581 | 0.80 |
| Lithuania | high | 0.696 | 0.917 | 0.264 | 0.30 |
| Poland | high | 0.656 | 0.962 | 0.651 | 0.35 |
| Netherlands | high | 0.581 | 0.768 | 0.614 | 0.40 |
| Portugal | moderate | 0.537 | 0.616 | 0.232 | 0.25 |
| Greece | moderate | 0.455 | 0.349 | 0.495 | 0.60 |
| Spain | moderate | 0.398 | 0.345 | 0.621 | 0.50 |
Pathway
Chokepoint stress into markets and exposure (PolicyGraph + UNCTAD tables).
Hormuz risk
Daily Hormuz transits in the ingested series span 3–151 vessels.
The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.
Downstream exposure draws on EU Agri overlays and UNCTAD vulnerable-economy context (10 economies in the local UNCTAD table for this view).
Framework narrative is the primary read; divergence and confirmation-gap rows are heuristic timing checks (uneven clocks).
Causal chain
· aligned timing
Framework narrative chain from maritime_risk_assessment brief_json (single coherent artifact).
Trade mix
Share of global seaborne trade through Hormuz (UNCTAD static snapshot). Bar length is proportional to share within this list.
Transits
Daily tanker transit counts through Hormuz (UNCTAD).
Market pulse
In the UNCTAD Hormuz price window, the gas series moved more than the oil series over the comparison span shown on each card.
As of 2026-03-09 · UNCTAD Hormuz workbook extract → unctad_hormuz_energy_daily
As of 2026-02-27 · UNCTAD Hormuz workbook extract → unctad_hormuz_energy_daily
As of 2026-02-27 · UNCTAD Hormuz workbook extract → unctad_hormuz_freight_daily
Energy: unctad_hormuz_energy_daily; freight: unctad_hormuz_freight_daily (BDTI when present).
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | 55.80 |
| 2026-03-06 | 52.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | 50.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | 48.60 |
| 2026-03-03 | 53.60 |
| 2026-03-02 | 43.50 |
| 2026-02-27 | 32.00 |
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 72.60 |
| 2026-02-26 | 70.80 |
| 2026-02-25 | 70.90 |
| 2026-02-24 | 70.80 |
| 2026-02-23 | 71.50 |
| 2026-02-20 | 71.80 |
| 2026-02-19 | 71.70 |
| 2026-02-18 | 70.30 |
| 2026-02-17 | 67.50 |
| 2026-02-16 | 68.60 |
| 2026-02-13 | 67.80 |
| 2026-02-12 | 67.60 |
| 2026-02-11 | 69.40 |
| 2026-02-10 | 68.90 |
| 2026-02-09 | 69.10 |
| 2026-02-06 | 68.10 |
| 2026-02-05 | 67.60 |
| 2026-02-04 | 69.50 |
| 2026-02-03 | 67.30 |
| 2026-02-02 | 66.40 |
| 2026-01-30 | 70.70 |
| 2026-01-29 | 70.70 |
| 2026-01-28 | 68.40 |
| 2026-01-27 | 67.60 |
| 2026-01-26 | 65.60 |
| 2026-01-23 | 65.90 |
| 2026-01-22 | 64.10 |
| 2026-01-21 | 65.30 |
| 2026-01-20 | 64.90 |
| 2026-01-19 | 64.20 |
| 2026-01-16 | 64.20 |
| 2026-01-15 | 63.80 |
| 2026-01-14 | 66.60 |
| 2026-01-13 | 65.50 |
| 2026-01-12 | 64.00 |
| 2026-01-09 | 63.40 |
| 2026-01-08 | 62.00 |
| 2026-01-07 | 60.00 |
| 2026-01-06 | 60.70 |
| 2026-01-05 | 61.80 |
| 2026-01-02 | 60.80 |
| 2026-01-01 | 60.90 |
| 2025-12-31 | 60.90 |
| 2025-12-30 | 61.90 |
| 2025-12-29 | 62.00 |
| 2025-12-26 | 62.30 |
| 2025-12-25 | 62.30 |
| 2025-12-24 | 62.30 |
| 2025-12-23 | 62.40 |
| 2025-12-22 | 62.10 |
| 2025-12-19 | 60.50 |
| 2025-12-18 | 59.80 |
| 2025-12-17 | 59.70 |
| 2025-12-16 | 59.00 |
| 2025-12-15 | 60.60 |
| 2025-12-12 | 61.20 |
| 2025-12-11 | 61.40 |
| 2025-12-10 | 62.30 |
| 2025-12-09 | 62.00 |
| 2025-12-08 | 62.50 |
| 2025-12-05 | 63.80 |
| 2025-12-04 | 63.30 |
| 2025-12-03 | 62.70 |
| 2025-12-02 | 62.50 |
| 2025-12-01 | 63.20 |
| 2025-11-28 | 63.20 |
| 2025-11-27 | 63.20 |
| 2025-11-26 | 63.20 |
| 2025-11-25 | 62.60 |
| 2025-11-24 | 63.40 |
| 2025-11-21 | 62.60 |
| 2025-11-20 | 63.40 |
| 2025-11-19 | 63.60 |
| 2025-11-18 | 64.90 |
| 2025-11-17 | 64.20 |
| 2025-11-14 | 64.40 |
| 2025-11-13 | 63.10 |
| 2025-11-12 | 62.80 |
| 2025-11-11 | 65.20 |
| 2025-11-10 | 64.10 |
| 2025-11-07 | 63.70 |
| 2025-11-06 | 63.40 |
| 2025-11-05 | 63.60 |
| 2025-11-04 | 64.50 |
| 2025-11-03 | 64.90 |
| 2025-10-31 | 65.10 |
| 2025-10-30 | 64.90 |
| 2025-10-29 | 64.90 |
| 2025-10-28 | 64.30 |
| 2025-10-27 | 65.70 |
| 2025-10-24 | 66.00 |
| 2025-10-23 | 66.00 |
| 2025-10-22 | 62.60 |
| 2025-10-21 | 61.40 |
| 2025-10-20 | 61.10 |
| 2025-10-17 | 61.30 |
| 2025-10-16 | 61.10 |
| 2025-10-15 | 62.00 |
| 2025-10-14 | 62.50 |
| 2025-10-13 | 63.40 |
| 2025-10-10 | 62.80 |
| 2025-10-09 | 65.30 |
| 2025-10-08 | 66.30 |
| 2025-10-07 | 65.50 |
| 2025-10-06 | 65.50 |
| 2025-10-03 | 64.50 |
| 2025-10-02 | 64.20 |
| 2025-10-01 | 65.40 |
| 2025-09-30 | 67.10 |
| 2025-09-29 | 68.00 |
| 2025-09-26 | 70.10 |
| 2025-09-25 | 69.50 |
| 2025-09-24 | 69.30 |
| 2025-09-23 | 67.70 |
| 2025-09-22 | 66.60 |
| 2025-09-19 | 66.70 |
| 2025-09-18 | 67.50 |
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 32.00 |
| 2026-02-26 | 31.30 |
| 2026-02-25 | 30.80 |
| 2026-02-24 | 30.20 |
| 2026-02-23 | 32.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | 31.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | 33.20 |
| 2026-02-18 | 31.30 |
| 2026-02-17 | 29.90 |
| 2026-02-16 | 31.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | 32.20 |
| 2026-02-12 | 32.70 |
| 2026-02-11 | 32.80 |
| 2026-02-10 | 33.30 |
| 2026-02-09 | 33.40 |
| 2026-02-06 | 35.70 |
| 2026-02-05 | 35.50 |
| 2026-02-04 | 34.50 |
| 2026-02-03 | 34.20 |
| 2026-02-02 | 35.50 |
| 2026-01-30 | 41.00 |
| 2026-01-29 | 40.40 |
| 2026-01-28 | 39.70 |
| 2026-01-27 | 39.80 |
| 2026-01-26 | 41.20 |
| 2026-01-23 | 40.60 |
| 2026-01-22 | 38.60 |
| 2026-01-21 | 40.00 |
| 2026-01-20 | 35.90 |
| 2026-01-19 | 35.90 |
| 2026-01-16 | 38.10 |
| 2026-01-15 | 33.50 |
| 2026-01-14 | 32.10 |
| 2026-01-13 | 31.50 |
| 2026-01-12 | 30.30 |
| 2026-01-09 | 29.00 |
| 2026-01-08 | 28.20 |
| 2026-01-07 | 28.50 |
| 2026-01-06 | 28.90 |
| 2026-01-05 | 28.50 |
| 2026-01-02 | 29.40 |
| 2026-01-01 | 28.20 |
| 2025-12-31 | 28.20 |
| 2025-12-30 | 27.90 |
| 2025-12-29 | 28.80 |
| 2025-12-26 | 28.30 |
| 2025-12-25 | 28.30 |
| 2025-12-24 | 28.30 |
| 2025-12-23 | 27.70 |
| 2025-12-22 | 27.70 |
| 2025-12-19 | 28.10 |
| 2025-12-18 | 27.50 |
| 2025-12-17 | 27.00 |
| 2025-12-16 | 26.80 |
| 2025-12-15 | 27.20 |
| 2025-12-12 | 27.60 |
| 2025-12-11 | 27.00 |
| 2025-12-10 | 26.70 |
| 2025-12-09 | 27.40 |
| 2025-12-08 | 26.80 |
| 2025-12-05 | 26.80 |
| 2025-12-04 | 27.30 |
| 2025-12-03 | 28.30 |
| 2025-12-02 | 28.10 |
| 2025-12-01 | 28.60 |
| 2025-11-28 | 28.80 |
| 2025-11-27 | 29.00 |
| 2025-11-26 | 29.20 |
| 2025-11-25 | 29.80 |
| 2025-11-24 | 30.00 |
| 2025-11-21 | 30.50 |
| 2025-11-20 | 31.30 |
| 2025-11-19 | 31.00 |
| 2025-11-18 | 31.70 |
| 2025-11-17 | 31.50 |
| 2025-11-14 | 30.80 |
| 2025-11-13 | 29.90 |
| 2025-11-12 | 30.30 |
| 2025-11-11 | 30.20 |
| 2025-11-10 | 30.40 |
| 2025-11-07 | 31.10 |
| 2025-11-06 | 31.80 |
| 2025-11-05 | 31.50 |
| 2025-11-04 | 31.90 |
| 2025-11-03 | 30.80 |
| 2025-10-31 | 30.30 |
| 2025-10-30 | 30.60 |
| 2025-10-29 | 31.60 |
| 2025-10-28 | 31.70 |
| 2025-10-27 | 31.00 |
| 2025-10-24 | 32.10 |
| 2025-10-23 | 32.30 |
| 2025-10-22 | 31.80 |
| 2025-10-21 | 32.40 |
| 2025-10-20 | 31.50 |
| 2025-10-17 | 31.80 |
| 2025-10-16 | 32.50 |
| 2025-10-15 | 32.40 |
| 2025-10-14 | 31.70 |
| 2025-10-13 | 31.70 |
| 2025-10-10 | 32.60 |
| 2025-10-09 | 32.80 |
| 2025-10-08 | 32.50 |
| 2025-10-07 | 33.60 |
| 2025-10-06 | 33.90 |
| 2025-10-03 | 31.00 |
| 2025-10-02 | 30.80 |
| 2025-10-01 | 31.60 |
| 2025-09-30 | 32.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | 32.30 |
| 2025-09-26 | 32.20 |
| 2025-09-25 | 32.30 |
| 2025-09-24 | 31.90 |
| 2025-09-23 | 32.50 |
| 2025-09-22 | 32.00 |
| 2025-09-19 | 32.00 |
| Date | Route | Index |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1991.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 906.00 |
| 2026-02-26 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1944.00 |
| 2026-02-26 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 866.00 |
| 2026-02-25 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1885.00 |
| 2026-02-25 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 846.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1842.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 829.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1809.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 810.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1787.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 805.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1766.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 808.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1743.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 802.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1747.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 812.00 |
| 2026-02-16 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1739.00 |
| 2026-02-16 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 829.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1719.00 |
| 2026-02-13 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 846.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1713.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 856.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1721.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 893.00 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1727.00 |
| 2026-02-10 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 895.00 |
| 2026-02-09 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1710.00 |
| 2026-02-09 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 907.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1691.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 917.00 |
| 2026-02-05 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1679.00 |
| 2026-02-05 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 916.00 |
| 2026-02-04 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1678.00 |
| 2026-02-04 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 902.00 |
| 2026-02-03 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1672.00 |
| 2026-02-03 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 901.00 |
| 2026-02-02 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1732.00 |
| 2026-02-02 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 894.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1702.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 883.00 |
| 2026-01-29 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1653.00 |
| 2026-01-29 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 893.00 |
| 2026-01-28 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1646.00 |
| 2026-01-28 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 887.00 |
| 2026-01-27 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1646.00 |
| 2026-01-27 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 890.00 |
| 2026-01-26 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1631.00 |
| 2026-01-26 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 890.00 |
| 2026-01-23 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1626.00 |
| 2026-01-23 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 857.00 |
| 2026-01-22 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1619.00 |
| 2026-01-22 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 865.00 |
| 2026-01-21 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1588.00 |
| 2026-01-21 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 849.00 |
| 2026-01-20 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1572.00 |
| 2026-01-20 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 855.00 |
| 2026-01-19 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1598.00 |
| 2026-01-19 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 829.00 |
| 2026-01-16 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1562.00 |
| 2026-01-16 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 830.00 |
| 2026-01-15 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1500.00 |
| 2026-01-15 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 837.00 |
| 2026-01-14 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1410.00 |
| 2026-01-14 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 845.00 |
| 2026-01-13 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1347.00 |
| 2026-01-13 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 777.00 |
| 2026-01-12 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1296.00 |
| 2026-01-12 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 721.00 |
| 2026-01-09 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1259.00 |
| 2026-01-09 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 713.00 |
| 2026-01-08 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1211.00 |
| 2026-01-08 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 709.00 |
| 2026-01-07 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1165.00 |
| 2026-01-07 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 700.00 |
| 2026-01-06 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1181.00 |
| 2026-01-06 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 713.00 |
| 2026-01-05 | Dirty tankers (BDTI) | 1188.00 |
| 2026-01-05 | Clean tankers (BCTI) | 746.00 |
| Month | Series | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Urea | 472.00 |
| 2026-02-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 105.09 |
| 2026-02-01 | DAP | 626.50 |
| 2026-01-01 | Urea | 415.40 |
| 2026-01-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 155.76 |
| 2026-01-01 | DAP | 619.20 |
| 2025-12-01 | Urea | 392.50 |
| 2025-12-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 104.38 |
| 2025-12-01 | DAP | 627.50 |
| 2025-11-01 | Urea | 409.25 |
| 2025-11-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 103.13 |
| 2025-11-01 | DAP | 708.25 |
| 2025-10-01 | Urea | 394.40 |
| 2025-10-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 98.11 |
| 2025-10-01 | DAP | 754.00 |
| 2025-09-01 | Urea | 461.13 |
| 2025-09-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 96.72 |
| 2025-09-01 | DAP | 780.63 |
| 2025-08-01 | Urea | 507.70 |
| 2025-08-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 96.33 |
| 2025-08-01 | DAP | 795.10 |
| 2025-07-01 | Urea | 496.00 |
| 2025-07-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 102.08 |
| 2025-07-01 | DAP | 736.00 |
| 2025-06-01 | Urea | 420.50 |
| 2025-06-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 103.74 |
| 2025-06-01 | DAP | 715.38 |
| 2025-05-01 | Urea | 392.00 |
| 2025-05-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 101.62 |
| 2025-05-01 | DAP | 669.20 |
| 2025-04-01 | Urea | 386.88 |
| 2025-04-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 104.98 |
| 2025-04-01 | DAP | 635.00 |
| 2025-03-01 | Urea | 394.50 |
| 2025-03-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 121.55 |
| 2025-03-01 | DAP | 615.13 |
| 2025-02-01 | Urea | 436.50 |
| 2025-02-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 132.86 |
| 2025-02-01 | DAP | 603.75 |
| 2025-01-01 | Urea | 380.50 |
| 2025-01-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 128.43 |
| 2025-01-01 | DAP | 582.70 |
| 2024-12-01 | Urea | 352.00 |
| 2024-12-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 111.15 |
| 2024-12-01 | DAP | 568.33 |
| 2024-11-01 | Urea | 352.30 |
| 2024-11-01 | Natural gas index (2010=100) | 100.45 |
| 2024-11-01 | DAP | 574.50 |
Exposure
Share of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD). Bars scaled to the largest value in this list.
Member states ranked by maximum fertilizer exposure score (0–1) from the EU Agri overlay.
Exposure score (0–1); bar width is relative to the top state in this list.
Highest fertilizer exposure scores by member state, farm type, and product context.
Exposure score 0.724
large · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.661
small · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.641
large · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.595
medium · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.573
medium · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.537
medium · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.534
large · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.531
small · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.530
large · nitrogen
Exposure score 0.518
large · nitrogen
unctad_hormuz_bond_yields_daily
| Date | Economy | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2004-01-01 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-02-13 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-05 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-06 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-07 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-08 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-09 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-12 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-13 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-14 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-02 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-16 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-19 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-20 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-21 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-22 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-23 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-26 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-27 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-28 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-29 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-01-30 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-02-02 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
| 2004-02-03 | :iq: Iraq | 7.129 |
Interpretation
Maritime scenario composite from the risk assessment.
How strongly secondary checks support the headline read.
Physical chokepoint / shipping stress signal.
Vulnerable importers and EU farm groups; UNCTAD tables are reference-only for scoring.
Tanker transits and stress level
freight and insurance pressure
delivery timing and vulnerable-country access