PolicyGraph

Fertilizer Watch

Monitoring energy-driven fertilizer supply disruption

PolicyGraph · Hormuz scenario · Local UNCTAD data layer

Strait of Hormuz: trade, energy & fertilizer transmission

The Strait of Hormuz moves a major share of global seaborne oil, LNG, and fertilizer-linked trade. Local UNCTAD chart data below illustrates how chokepoint stress propagates into energy, freight, farm input costs, and vulnerable economies—enriched with PolicyGraph scoring and EU exposure context.

Rapid analysis view Market Signals Executive report
CRITICAL Overall risk 0.780 Confirmation 0.690 Tanker stress CRITICAL Tanker stress score 0.970

Market signal figure

Market Signals

Elevated · 0.631 · Confidence 0.750 · Stale

LNG vs Gas stress relationship

Both series use a fixed 0.0-1.0 stress scale.

0.25 0.5 0.75 2026-01-31 2026-03-26 2026-03-31 Gas 0.588 LNG 0.503
EU LNG system stress (primary) EU gas price stress (secondary)
Headline signal

EU LNG system stress

Elevated · 0.631 · Confidence 0.750 · Stale

As of 2026-03-31 · age 22d

EU LNG system stress is elevated as of 2026-03-31. Inventory remains below seasonal norm while send-out pressure is contributing to stress.

Supporting signal

EU gas blended market stress

Elevated · 0.588 · Confidence 0.879 · Blended Market Plus Structural

As of 2026-03-31 · age 22d

EU gas blended market stress is elevated as of 2026-03-31. The signal blends a fast market read with a lagging structural monthly benchmark. Structural=0.72, market=0.50. Blended gas signal from market + structural baseline using weights market=0.60, baseline=0.40.

Assessment

Infrastructure stress is elevated and gas-price action is confirming broader market pressure.

Watchpoints

  • Monitor whether LNG stress persists into the next gas day.
  • Gas-price pressure is confirming infrastructure stress; monitor fertilizer and downstream crop-cost transmission.
External commentary

Monthly benchmark context (not live prices)

World Bank blog PDFs and similar sources are narrative evidence for briefs and citations. Canonical EU gas / Japan LNG / fertilizer levels come from the Pink Sheet CSV or workbook—not from these PDFs.

  • World Bank market commentary, 09 Mar 2026: February energy prices softened overall (energy price index −0.5% m/m). The blog's monthly-change chart lists Natural gas, Europe at −4.41% and Liquefied natural gas, Japan at −0.16% (February vs January). Fertilizer prices rose 6.5%; the blog also cites a large decline in U.S. natural gas (−52.3%). Canonical monthly price levels remain the World Bank Pink Sheet CSV / workbook—not this PDF.

    Supports Hormuz / market briefs with an external monthly commodity narrative: soft energy index, weaker European gas and Japan LNG on a m/m basis in the blog chart, firmer fertilizer headline, while ALSI/GIE continues to carry LNG infrastructure stress.

Snapshot and diagnostics
  • Risk: CRITICAL · overall risk 0.780 · confirmation 0.690 · tanker stress CRITICAL.
  • Headline signal: Elevated · 0.503 · Confidence 0.750 · Stale
  • Exposure: Top countries: Italy, Lithuania, Poland.
  • Context: The Strait of Hormuz moves a major share of global seaborne oil, LNG, and fertilizer-linked trade. Local UNCTAD chart data below illustrates how chokepoint stre…
  • Full brief: Hormuz executive report
Country exposure snapshot

ALSI snapshot

Country exposure snapshot

LNG stress vs Hormuz corridor weights · latest gas day.

Gas day 2026-03-31. Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), ALSI transparency platform

Country Risk band Exposure score Send-out util. Inventory % Hormuz weight
Italy high 0.706 0.764 0.581 0.80
Lithuania high 0.696 0.917 0.264 0.30
Poland high 0.656 0.962 0.651 0.35
Netherlands high 0.581 0.768 0.614 0.40
Portugal moderate 0.537 0.616 0.232 0.25
Greece moderate 0.455 0.349 0.495 0.60
Spain moderate 0.398 0.345 0.621 0.50

Pathway

Transmission · cause → effect

Chokepoint stress into markets and exposure (PolicyGraph + UNCTAD tables).

1 · Cause Trigger

Shock & corridor risk

Hormuz risk

2 · Mechanism Maritime

Physical shipping

Daily Hormuz transits in the ingested series span 3–151 vessels.

3 · Transmission Markets

Energy & freight

The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.

4 · Effect Downstream

Fertilizer & exposure

Downstream exposure draws on EU Agri overlays and UNCTAD vulnerable-economy context (10 economies in the local UNCTAD table for this view).

Framework causal links

Cross-layer analytics

Framework narrative is the primary read; divergence and confirmation-gap rows are heuristic timing checks (uneven clocks).

Primary · HIGH

Causal chain · aligned timing
Framework narrative chain from maritime_risk_assessment brief_json (single coherent artifact).

Heuristic checks LOW confidence

  • LOW Divergence · mixed — Heuristic cross-layer read: tanker and LNG are higher-frequency than Pink Sheet gas_price_stress; not a time-aligned causal test. Physical layers (PortWatch tanker, LNG signal_daily, TTF futures) update more often than gas_price_stress (monthly World Bank benchmark).
  • LOW Confirmation gap · uneven — Calendar-day lag between first qualifying LNG and first qualifying gas row is an interpreted timing estimate, not proof of causality. No gas observations before physical_first_date in this window; earlier market repricing cannot be ruled out. LNG signal_daily is much denser than gas_price_stress in this window; calendar-day lag is not a measured causal delay.

Trade mix

Share of trade through the Strait

Share of global seaborne trade through Hormuz (UNCTAD static snapshot). Bar length is proportional to share within this list.

Crude oil
38.0%
Liquefied petroleum gas
29.0%
Liquefied natural gas
19.0%
Refined oil products
19.0%
Chemicals, including fertilizers
13.0%
Container
2.8%
Dry bulk, including grains
2.4%

Transits

Ship transits · Hormuz

Daily tanker transit counts through Hormuz (UNCTAD).

Market pulse

UNCTAD energy & freight snapshot

In the UNCTAD Hormuz price window, the gas series moved more than the oil series over the comparison span shown on each card.

Gas (UNCTAD Hormuz chart series)
55.80 UNCTAD chart units
+14.8% ≈5d

As of 2026-03-09 · UNCTAD Hormuz workbook extract → unctad_hormuz_energy_daily

Oil (UNCTAD Hormuz chart series 1)
72.60 UNCTAD chart units
+1.1% ≈7d

As of 2026-02-27 · UNCTAD Hormuz workbook extract → unctad_hormuz_energy_daily

Dirty tankers (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index)
1991.00 UNCTAD chart units
+11.4% ≈7d

As of 2026-02-27 · UNCTAD Hormuz workbook extract → unctad_hormuz_freight_daily

View recent observations

Energy: unctad_hormuz_energy_daily; freight: unctad_hormuz_freight_daily (BDTI when present).

Gas (UNCTAD energy daily · gas series)

DateValue
2026-03-0955.80
2026-03-0652.00
2026-03-0550.00
2026-03-0448.60
2026-03-0353.60
2026-03-0243.50
2026-02-2732.00

Oil (UNCTAD energy daily · oil series 1)

DateValue
2026-02-2772.60
2026-02-2670.80
2026-02-2570.90
2026-02-2470.80
2026-02-2371.50
2026-02-2071.80
2026-02-1971.70
2026-02-1870.30
2026-02-1767.50
2026-02-1668.60
2026-02-1367.80
2026-02-1267.60
2026-02-1169.40
2026-02-1068.90
2026-02-0969.10
2026-02-0668.10
2026-02-0567.60
2026-02-0469.50
2026-02-0367.30
2026-02-0266.40
2026-01-3070.70
2026-01-2970.70
2026-01-2868.40
2026-01-2767.60
2026-01-2665.60
2026-01-2365.90
2026-01-2264.10
2026-01-2165.30
2026-01-2064.90
2026-01-1964.20
2026-01-1664.20
2026-01-1563.80
2026-01-1466.60
2026-01-1365.50
2026-01-1264.00
2026-01-0963.40
2026-01-0862.00
2026-01-0760.00
2026-01-0660.70
2026-01-0561.80
2026-01-0260.80
2026-01-0160.90
2025-12-3160.90
2025-12-3061.90
2025-12-2962.00
2025-12-2662.30
2025-12-2562.30
2025-12-2462.30
2025-12-2362.40
2025-12-2262.10
2025-12-1960.50
2025-12-1859.80
2025-12-1759.70
2025-12-1659.00
2025-12-1560.60
2025-12-1261.20
2025-12-1161.40
2025-12-1062.30
2025-12-0962.00
2025-12-0862.50
2025-12-0563.80
2025-12-0463.30
2025-12-0362.70
2025-12-0262.50
2025-12-0163.20
2025-11-2863.20
2025-11-2763.20
2025-11-2663.20
2025-11-2562.60
2025-11-2463.40
2025-11-2162.60
2025-11-2063.40
2025-11-1963.60
2025-11-1864.90
2025-11-1764.20
2025-11-1464.40
2025-11-1363.10
2025-11-1262.80
2025-11-1165.20
2025-11-1064.10
2025-11-0763.70
2025-11-0663.40
2025-11-0563.60
2025-11-0464.50
2025-11-0364.90
2025-10-3165.10
2025-10-3064.90
2025-10-2964.90
2025-10-2864.30
2025-10-2765.70
2025-10-2466.00
2025-10-2366.00
2025-10-2262.60
2025-10-2161.40
2025-10-2061.10
2025-10-1761.30
2025-10-1661.10
2025-10-1562.00
2025-10-1462.50
2025-10-1363.40
2025-10-1062.80
2025-10-0965.30
2025-10-0866.30
2025-10-0765.50
2025-10-0665.50
2025-10-0364.50
2025-10-0264.20
2025-10-0165.40
2025-09-3067.10
2025-09-2968.00
2025-09-2670.10
2025-09-2569.50
2025-09-2469.30
2025-09-2367.70
2025-09-2266.60
2025-09-1966.70
2025-09-1867.50

Other energy (TRNLTTD(E))

DateValue
2026-02-2732.00
2026-02-2631.30
2026-02-2530.80
2026-02-2430.20
2026-02-2332.00
2026-02-2031.00
2026-02-1933.20
2026-02-1831.30
2026-02-1729.90
2026-02-1631.00
2026-02-1332.20
2026-02-1232.70
2026-02-1132.80
2026-02-1033.30
2026-02-0933.40
2026-02-0635.70
2026-02-0535.50
2026-02-0434.50
2026-02-0334.20
2026-02-0235.50
2026-01-3041.00
2026-01-2940.40
2026-01-2839.70
2026-01-2739.80
2026-01-2641.20
2026-01-2340.60
2026-01-2238.60
2026-01-2140.00
2026-01-2035.90
2026-01-1935.90
2026-01-1638.10
2026-01-1533.50
2026-01-1432.10
2026-01-1331.50
2026-01-1230.30
2026-01-0929.00
2026-01-0828.20
2026-01-0728.50
2026-01-0628.90
2026-01-0528.50
2026-01-0229.40
2026-01-0128.20
2025-12-3128.20
2025-12-3027.90
2025-12-2928.80
2025-12-2628.30
2025-12-2528.30
2025-12-2428.30
2025-12-2327.70
2025-12-2227.70
2025-12-1928.10
2025-12-1827.50
2025-12-1727.00
2025-12-1626.80
2025-12-1527.20
2025-12-1227.60
2025-12-1127.00
2025-12-1026.70
2025-12-0927.40
2025-12-0826.80
2025-12-0526.80
2025-12-0427.30
2025-12-0328.30
2025-12-0228.10
2025-12-0128.60
2025-11-2828.80
2025-11-2729.00
2025-11-2629.20
2025-11-2529.80
2025-11-2430.00
2025-11-2130.50
2025-11-2031.30
2025-11-1931.00
2025-11-1831.70
2025-11-1731.50
2025-11-1430.80
2025-11-1329.90
2025-11-1230.30
2025-11-1130.20
2025-11-1030.40
2025-11-0731.10
2025-11-0631.80
2025-11-0531.50
2025-11-0431.90
2025-11-0330.80
2025-10-3130.30
2025-10-3030.60
2025-10-2931.60
2025-10-2831.70
2025-10-2731.00
2025-10-2432.10
2025-10-2332.30
2025-10-2231.80
2025-10-2132.40
2025-10-2031.50
2025-10-1731.80
2025-10-1632.50
2025-10-1532.40
2025-10-1431.70
2025-10-1331.70
2025-10-1032.60
2025-10-0932.80
2025-10-0832.50
2025-10-0733.60
2025-10-0633.90
2025-10-0331.00
2025-10-0230.80
2025-10-0131.60
2025-09-3032.00
2025-09-2932.30
2025-09-2632.20
2025-09-2532.30
2025-09-2431.90
2025-09-2332.50
2025-09-2232.00
2025-09-1932.00

Freight (UNCTAD freight daily)

DateRouteIndex
2026-02-27Dirty tankers (BDTI)1991.00
2026-02-27Clean tankers (BCTI)906.00
2026-02-26Dirty tankers (BDTI)1944.00
2026-02-26Clean tankers (BCTI)866.00
2026-02-25Dirty tankers (BDTI)1885.00
2026-02-25Clean tankers (BCTI)846.00
2026-02-24Dirty tankers (BDTI)1842.00
2026-02-24Clean tankers (BCTI)829.00
2026-02-23Dirty tankers (BDTI)1809.00
2026-02-23Clean tankers (BCTI)810.00
2026-02-20Dirty tankers (BDTI)1787.00
2026-02-20Clean tankers (BCTI)805.00
2026-02-19Dirty tankers (BDTI)1766.00
2026-02-19Clean tankers (BCTI)808.00
2026-02-18Dirty tankers (BDTI)1743.00
2026-02-18Clean tankers (BCTI)802.00
2026-02-17Dirty tankers (BDTI)1747.00
2026-02-17Clean tankers (BCTI)812.00
2026-02-16Dirty tankers (BDTI)1739.00
2026-02-16Clean tankers (BCTI)829.00
2026-02-13Dirty tankers (BDTI)1719.00
2026-02-13Clean tankers (BCTI)846.00
2026-02-12Dirty tankers (BDTI)1713.00
2026-02-12Clean tankers (BCTI)856.00
2026-02-11Dirty tankers (BDTI)1721.00
2026-02-11Clean tankers (BCTI)893.00
2026-02-10Dirty tankers (BDTI)1727.00
2026-02-10Clean tankers (BCTI)895.00
2026-02-09Dirty tankers (BDTI)1710.00
2026-02-09Clean tankers (BCTI)907.00
2026-02-06Dirty tankers (BDTI)1691.00
2026-02-06Clean tankers (BCTI)917.00
2026-02-05Dirty tankers (BDTI)1679.00
2026-02-05Clean tankers (BCTI)916.00
2026-02-04Dirty tankers (BDTI)1678.00
2026-02-04Clean tankers (BCTI)902.00
2026-02-03Dirty tankers (BDTI)1672.00
2026-02-03Clean tankers (BCTI)901.00
2026-02-02Dirty tankers (BDTI)1732.00
2026-02-02Clean tankers (BCTI)894.00
2026-01-30Dirty tankers (BDTI)1702.00
2026-01-30Clean tankers (BCTI)883.00
2026-01-29Dirty tankers (BDTI)1653.00
2026-01-29Clean tankers (BCTI)893.00
2026-01-28Dirty tankers (BDTI)1646.00
2026-01-28Clean tankers (BCTI)887.00
2026-01-27Dirty tankers (BDTI)1646.00
2026-01-27Clean tankers (BCTI)890.00
2026-01-26Dirty tankers (BDTI)1631.00
2026-01-26Clean tankers (BCTI)890.00
2026-01-23Dirty tankers (BDTI)1626.00
2026-01-23Clean tankers (BCTI)857.00
2026-01-22Dirty tankers (BDTI)1619.00
2026-01-22Clean tankers (BCTI)865.00
2026-01-21Dirty tankers (BDTI)1588.00
2026-01-21Clean tankers (BCTI)849.00
2026-01-20Dirty tankers (BDTI)1572.00
2026-01-20Clean tankers (BCTI)855.00
2026-01-19Dirty tankers (BDTI)1598.00
2026-01-19Clean tankers (BCTI)829.00
2026-01-16Dirty tankers (BDTI)1562.00
2026-01-16Clean tankers (BCTI)830.00
2026-01-15Dirty tankers (BDTI)1500.00
2026-01-15Clean tankers (BCTI)837.00
2026-01-14Dirty tankers (BDTI)1410.00
2026-01-14Clean tankers (BCTI)845.00
2026-01-13Dirty tankers (BDTI)1347.00
2026-01-13Clean tankers (BCTI)777.00
2026-01-12Dirty tankers (BDTI)1296.00
2026-01-12Clean tankers (BCTI)721.00
2026-01-09Dirty tankers (BDTI)1259.00
2026-01-09Clean tankers (BCTI)713.00
2026-01-08Dirty tankers (BDTI)1211.00
2026-01-08Clean tankers (BCTI)709.00
2026-01-07Dirty tankers (BDTI)1165.00
2026-01-07Clean tankers (BCTI)700.00
2026-01-06Dirty tankers (BDTI)1181.00
2026-01-06Clean tankers (BCTI)713.00
2026-01-05Dirty tankers (BDTI)1188.00
2026-01-05Clean tankers (BCTI)746.00

Fertilizer & gas index (monthly) (UNCTAD monthly table)

MonthSeriesValue
2026-02-01Urea472.00
2026-02-01Natural gas index (2010=100)105.09
2026-02-01DAP626.50
2026-01-01Urea415.40
2026-01-01Natural gas index (2010=100)155.76
2026-01-01DAP619.20
2025-12-01Urea392.50
2025-12-01Natural gas index (2010=100)104.38
2025-12-01DAP627.50
2025-11-01Urea409.25
2025-11-01Natural gas index (2010=100)103.13
2025-11-01DAP708.25
2025-10-01Urea394.40
2025-10-01Natural gas index (2010=100)98.11
2025-10-01DAP754.00
2025-09-01Urea461.13
2025-09-01Natural gas index (2010=100)96.72
2025-09-01DAP780.63
2025-08-01Urea507.70
2025-08-01Natural gas index (2010=100)96.33
2025-08-01DAP795.10
2025-07-01Urea496.00
2025-07-01Natural gas index (2010=100)102.08
2025-07-01DAP736.00
2025-06-01Urea420.50
2025-06-01Natural gas index (2010=100)103.74
2025-06-01DAP715.38
2025-05-01Urea392.00
2025-05-01Natural gas index (2010=100)101.62
2025-05-01DAP669.20
2025-04-01Urea386.88
2025-04-01Natural gas index (2010=100)104.98
2025-04-01DAP635.00
2025-03-01Urea394.50
2025-03-01Natural gas index (2010=100)121.55
2025-03-01DAP615.13
2025-02-01Urea436.50
2025-02-01Natural gas index (2010=100)132.86
2025-02-01DAP603.75
2025-01-01Urea380.50
2025-01-01Natural gas index (2010=100)128.43
2025-01-01DAP582.70
2024-12-01Urea352.00
2024-12-01Natural gas index (2010=100)111.15
2024-12-01DAP568.33
2024-11-01Urea352.30
2024-11-01Natural gas index (2010=100)100.45
2024-11-01DAP574.50

Exposure

Vulnerable economies & EU agri exposure

Vulnerable economies

Share of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD). Bars scaled to the largest value in this list.

Sudan Least developed
53.9% share

~53.9% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

Sri Lanka Developing
36.4% share

~36.4% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

Australia Developed
32.2% share

~32.2% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

United Republic of Tanzania Least developed
31.5% share

~31.5% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

Somalia Least developed
30.1% share

~30.1% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

Show more (5 additional)
Pakistan Developing
27.0% share

~27.0% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

Thailand Developing
26.8% share

~26.8% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

Kenya Developing
26.5% share

~26.5% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

New Zealand Developed
26.0% share

~26.0% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

Mozambique Least developed
21.8% share

~21.8% of fertilizer imports from Gulf-linked suppliers (HS 31, UNCTAD snapshot)

EU exposed member states

Member states ranked by maximum fertilizer exposure score (0–1) from the EU Agri overlay.

Exposure score (0–1); bar width is relative to the top state in this list.

Lithuania moderate_exposure
0.724 score
Ireland moderate_exposure
0.661 score
Poland moderate_exposure
0.641 score
Latvia moderate_exposure
0.595 score
Portugal moderate_exposure
0.573 score
Show more (5 additional)
France moderate_exposure
0.537 score
Bulgaria moderate_exposure
0.534 score
Croatia moderate_exposure
0.530 score
Greece moderate_exposure
0.509 score
Italy lower_exposure
0.500 score

Farm groups

Highest fertilizer exposure scores by member state, farm type, and product context.

1

Lithuania — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.724

large · nitrogen

2

Ireland — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.661

small · nitrogen

3

Poland — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.641

large · nitrogen

4

Latvia — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.595

medium · nitrogen

5

Portugal — (2) Horticulture

Exposure score 0.573

medium · nitrogen

Show more (5 additional)
6

France — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.537

medium · nitrogen

7

Bulgaria — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.534

large · nitrogen

8

Bulgaria — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.531

small · nitrogen

9

Croatia — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.530

large · nitrogen

10

France — (1) Fieldcrops

Exposure score 0.518

large · nitrogen

Bond yields (sample)

unctad_hormuz_bond_yields_daily

DateEconomyYield %
2004-01-01:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-02-13:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-05:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-06:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-07:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-08:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-09:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-12:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-13:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-14:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-02:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-16:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-19:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-20:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-21:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-22:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-23:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-26:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-27:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-28:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-29:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-01-30:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-02-02:iq: Iraq7.129
2004-02-03:iq: Iraq7.129

Interpretation

PolicyGraph interpretation

Overall risk 0.780 CRITICAL

Maritime scenario composite from the risk assessment.

Confirmation 0.690

How strongly secondary checks support the headline read.

Tanker stress 0.970 CRITICAL

Physical chokepoint / shipping stress signal.

Exposure & tables

Vulnerable importers and EU farm groups; UNCTAD tables are reference-only for scoring.

What to watch next

Watchpoint

Tanker transits and stress level

Watchpoint

freight and insurance pressure

Watchpoint

delivery timing and vulnerable-country access

Hormuz disruption risk is currently assessed at 0.780 (CRITICAL). PortWatch tanker stress signal is CRITICAL, while EU Agri overlay highlights 10 exposed member-state entries. UNCTAD local support tables identify 10 vulnerable economies.

Technical provenance & data sources
Trade mix through Hormuz (static UNCTAD snapshot)
unctad_hormuz_trade_share_static
Tanker transits through Hormuz (daily)
unctad_hormuz_transit_daily
Freight indices (daily)
unctad_hormuz_freight_daily
Energy chart series (daily)
unctad_hormuz_energy_daily
Fertilizer and gas index (monthly)
unctad_hormuz_fertilizer_gas_monthly
Import dependence / vulnerable economies (UNCTAD)
unctad_hormuz_vulnerable_economies
Bond yields sample (daily)
unctad_hormuz_bond_yields_daily
PolicyGraph maritime scenario scoring
maritime_risk_assessment + load_maritime_shock_brief_v1 overlays

EU Agri overlay (technical summary)

EU vulnerability context suggests concentration risk is active: summary labels: watch=161; latest trade date 2026-01-01; mean dependency_01 1.000; mean exposure_01 0.000. Treat this as directional exposure evidence for maritime narratives.