PolicyGraph

Fertilizer Watch

Monitoring energy-driven fertilizer supply disruption

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Hormuz energy-fertilizer shock

Scenario hormuz_energy_fertilizer_shock · refreshed 2026-03-30T17:48:29.718903

CRITICAL Risk score 0.780 Confidence 0.690 Tanker stress CRITICAL Stress index 0.970 Coverage full PortWatch 2026-03-08

Executive summary

  • Risk state: CRITICAL · score 0.780 · confidence 0.690 · tanker CRITICAL.
  • What changed now: Hormuz risk
  • Why it matters now: The disruption transmits through shipping distance, fuel, freight, access and affordability channels.
  • Tanker signal: CRITICAL (0.970)
  • Exposure concentration: Top member states: Lithuania, Ireland, Poland.
  • Watch next (30 days): Tanker transits and stress level · freight and insurance pressure

Pathway

Causal chain

Core transmission path for the executive read.

Hormuz risk → tanker / LNG disruption → energy cost pressure → fertilizer cost pressure → vulnerable-country exposure

Appendix

Technical appendix

Summary is above; open for evidence and diagnostic depth.

Open evidence appendix
Coverage status
full
Included routes
Strait of Hormuz
Uncovered routes
none
Latest PortWatch reading
2026-03-08
Evidence sources
portwatch_reference.vw_portwatch_tanker_stress_latest; portwatch_reference.vw_portwatch_tanker_transits_90d; strategic_maritime_nodes_45d; vw_port_nowcast_preferred downstream availability; vw_eu_natural_gas_price_recent; eu_fertilizer_prices / fertilizer_price_pressure; event_price_confirmation; Hormuz CRITICAL -> downstream nitrogen dependencies; eu_agri_ref.eu_fertilizer_exposure_latest; eu_agri_ref.eu_fertilizer_policygraph_summary; eu_agri_ref.eu_fertilizer_import_dependency_latest
Confirming indicators
PortWatch tanker stress High (1.000); coverage=full; loaded=Strait of Hormuz; missing=none; latest_portwatch_obs_date=2026-03-08; downstream_nowcast_hits=2; gas_rows=12; fertilizer_rows=24044; local confirmation only; no external API calls used
Exposure groups
—
Watchlist detail
Tanker transits and stress level; freight and insurance pressure; delivery timing and vulnerable-country access
Confidence note
overall_risk_01=0.780; tanker_coverage=full; latest_portwatch_obs_date=2026-03-08; contributors=portwatch_reference.vw_portwatch_tanker_stress_latest, portwatch_reference.vw_portwatch_tanker_transits_90d, strategic_maritime_nodes_45d, vw_port_nowcast_preferred downstream availability, vw_eu_natural_gas_price_recent, eu_fertilizer_prices / fertilizer_price_pressure, event_price_confirmation; missing=none.
EU exposure note
EU vulnerability context suggests concentration risk is active: summary labels: watch=161; latest trade date 2026-01-01; mean dependency_01 1.000; mean exposure_01 0.000. Treat this as directional exposure evidence for maritime narratives.
Top exposed member states (detail)
  1. Lithuania · 0.724 · moderate_exposure
  2. Ireland · 0.661 · moderate_exposure
  3. Poland · 0.641 · moderate_exposure
  4. Latvia · 0.595 · moderate_exposure
  5. Portugal · 0.573 · moderate_exposure
  6. France · 0.537 · moderate_exposure
  7. Bulgaria · 0.534 · moderate_exposure
  8. Croatia · 0.530 · moderate_exposure
  9. Greece · 0.509 · moderate_exposure
  10. Italy · 0.500 · lower_exposure
Top exposed farm groups (detail)
  1. Lithuania · (1) Fieldcrops · large · nitrogen · 0.724
  2. Ireland · (1) Fieldcrops · small · nitrogen · 0.661
  3. Poland · (1) Fieldcrops · large · nitrogen · 0.641
  4. Latvia · (1) Fieldcrops · medium · nitrogen · 0.595
  5. Portugal · (2) Horticulture · medium · nitrogen · 0.573
  6. France · (1) Fieldcrops · medium · nitrogen · 0.537
  7. Bulgaria · (1) Fieldcrops · large · nitrogen · 0.534
  8. Bulgaria · (1) Fieldcrops · small · nitrogen · 0.531
  9. Croatia · (1) Fieldcrops · large · nitrogen · 0.530
  10. France · (1) Fieldcrops · large · nitrogen · 0.518
Import dependency snapshot
Reference only — not part of risk scoring
State Product Top origin Top share Label
BE 3102 WORLD 1.000 high_dependency
CZ 2510 WORLD 1.000 high_dependency
DE 3103 WORLD 1.000 high_dependency
DE 3104 WORLD 1.000 high_dependency
FR 3103 WORLD 1.000 high_dependency