A small what-if simulator: set evidence, then infer supply shock and downstream impact probabilities.
Hormuz status
Upstream dependency
Energy stress (TTF)
Checking availability…
Outputs
P(Supply shock)
—
P(Downstream impact: High)
—
🧾 Validation Report: Supply Chain Digital Twin (March 2026 Update)
Displayed once on your first scenario execution.
Your supply chain risk model has been recalibrated using
March 2026 regulatory filings (Form 10-K / 20-F). The system now prioritizes
physical production assets and corporate capacity over raw trade flows, reducing distortion from
transshipment hubs.
1. SEC-Anchored Confidence
Fact-Based Risk Mapping:0% of corporate exposure weights in this scenario are
derived from SEC filings. This materially reduces “hub noise” from transit economies such as
the UK and Switzerland.
Nutrien: Potash exposure aligned to disclosed production footprint and 14.1–14.8M tonne sales guidance.
CF Industries: Nitrogen exposure anchored to ~10.1M ton ammonia production and US Gulf asset concentration.
ICL Group: Potash flows mapped to Dead Sea concession-linked production and export routes.
2. Tactical Awareness: High-Leverage Estimates
The system has identified
0 high-leverage provisional inputs
influencing current risk outputs.
Status: Displayed as a dashed line in the map interface.
Action: Prioritize SEC verification of South Fort Meade assets in the next data refresh cycle.
3. Bayesian Impact Narrative
With the integration of corporate asset anchors, the Bayesian engine now distinguishes between:
Logistics Disruption (route-level delay) and Production Disruption (capacity-level shock).
Scenario Insight: A 10% increase in US natural gas prices propagates directly to
US Gulf nitrogen production clusters, concentrates impact in gas-dependent ammonia capacity,
and elevates Nitrogen Feedstock Risk → High. The model localizes exposure to specific production
regions, enabling more precise risk attribution.
Hormuz LNG shock
confidence - 0.60
Recent intelligence links Hormuz and LNG stress to downstream fertilizer and market-risk spillovers.
Chokepoints hit
Bab el-Mandeb, Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal
Commodities affected
LNG, ammonia, fertilizer, natural gas, urea
Regions affected
Brazil, China, EU, India
Hormuz stress slows Gulf LNG and ammonia-linked flows
confidence · 0.80
Slow movement near Hormuz raises concern over Gulf energy transit, tightening LNG and ammonia-linked supply expectations.
Affected chokepoints
Ras Laffan LNG, Strait of Hormuz, Ras Laffan
Affected commodities
ammonia, urea
Affected companies
SABIC Agri-Nutrients, OCI, Yara
Spillover Chain
Hormuz chokepoint stress buildsGulf LNG and feedstock timing worsenEurope gas replacement costs riseAmmonia benchmarks strengthenFertilizer affordability weakens
Trigger Events
2026-03-10
Routing friction rises near Hormuz
Insurance and routing stress increased for vessels transiting Hormuz, raising energy-linked fertilizer disruption risk.
2026-03-07T08:00:00Z
Hormuz Stress
Voyage slows materially near Hormuz, consistent with chokepoint stress that could tighten LNG and ammonia-linked supply.
Monitor Impact
Predefined deltas show how this scenario would move the current watch.
Monitor impacts scaled by Bayesian P(SupplyShock).
Hormuz Energy Disruption
75 -> 89
+14Scenario-adjusted—Base: +14
LNG Delivery Disruption
59 -> 69
+10Scenario-adjusted—Base: +10
Ammonia Price
53 -> 60
+7Scenario-adjusted—Base: +7
Europe Gas Stress
67 -> 73
+6Scenario-adjusted—Base: +6
Combines the mocked Hormuz-linked LNG event with the existing Hormuz chokepoint narrative.
EU Supply Diversification (Russia · US Gulf · Anchors)
Policy Exposure, Swing Capacity, and Anchor Stability for Nitrogen Fertilizers.
Policy Exposure (Russia / Belarus)
Residual dependence:
0.0%
Residual Russian/Belarusian dependence persists because substitution is incomplete.
Swing Capacity (US Gulf / CF)
Substitution capacity:
0.0%
US Gulf acts as marginal swing supply for EU nitrogen.
Anchor Stability (Morocco / Canada etc.)
Stabilizer weight:
0.0%
Anchors (e.g. Canada, Morocco, Gulf producers) support EU resilience by bucket.
Coverage note: “SEC Verified” indicates weights derived from 2026 regulatory filings.
“Provisional” indicates analyst-estimated asset concentration pending source validation.
Weight-based shares reflect modeled influence, not only row counts.
EU Route Friction (Tariffs / CBAM)
Simple view of tariff, specific duty, and CBAM accrual friction for key nitrogen routes into the EU.
Russia → EU (Nitrogen Fertilizers)
Tariff friction
0%
Specific duty friction
0%
CBAM accrual friction
0%
Verification advantage
0%
Edge friction coefficient
0%
United States → EU (Nitrogen Fertilizers)
Tariff friction
0%
Specific duty friction
0%
CBAM accrual friction
0%
Verification advantage
0%
Edge friction coefficient
0%
CBAM is shown as accrued exposure on 2026 imports (certificates purchased from 2027), not as a current border duty.
EU Margin Squeeze (Urea vs Corn)
Simple local view of fertilizer vs crop prices using World Bank urea and corn benchmarks.
Latest observation
2026-02-01
Urea price (USD/ton)
472
Corn price (USD/ton)
—
Fertilizer-to-crop ratio
—
Based on recent EU-facing urea and corn prices. When the ratio rises, the revenue cushion for
farmers shrinks and demand destruction becomes more likely.
ertilizer prices have decoupled from historical norms due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has "stranded" global supply. * **Nitrogen (Urea):** Prices have spiked 34% in the last month alone, reaching ap
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/The European agricultural sector having multipl impacts Gemini 4 14 2026.txt
additional **7% to 15%** to the cost of urea and ammonia at the port. * **The "Article 27a" Debate:** Twelve EU countries have petitioned for the temporary suspension of CBAM for fertilizers, citing "serious an
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/The European agricultural sector having multipl impacts Gemini 4 14 2026.txt
f the fertilizer, but the **physical availability** of the product for the 2026 spring planting season.
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/The European agricultural sector having multipl impacts Gemini 4 14 2026.txt
2026-04-14 21:37:34.194869
chokepoint_logistics_disruption (down) | Signals: 780 USD/ton; 16 million tonnes; 1.2 million tonnes
*Signals:** $780 USD/ton (Urea); $820 USD/ton (DAP) **Executive Summary:** The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial fertilizer traffic as of April 13, 2026, following a U.S. naval blockade implementa
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/As of mid-April 2026, the Double trouble 4 14 2025 GEMINI .txt
2026-04-14 21:37:34.194869
fertilizer_production_disruption (down) | Signals: 780 USD/ton; 16 million tonnes; 1.2 million tonnes
benchmark) has surged to **$780/ton**, up 60% since late February. ### **Node: Jorf Lasfar (Morocco - OCP Group)** * **Status:** `risk_score: 9` (Rising) * **Evidence:** **"Maintenance-Induced Scarcity."** OCP
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/As of mid-April 2026, the Double trouble 4 14 2025 GEMINI .txt
2026-04-14 21:37:34.194869
regulatory_safeguard_trigger (up) | Signals: 780 USD/ton; 16 million tonnes; 1.2 million tonnes
istoric norms as raw material bottlenecks tighten. ### **Node: EU Policy (CBAM Article 27a)** * **Status:** `policy_pressure_event (Critical)` * **Evidence:** **"The 50% Coverage Gap."** EU farmers report they
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/As of mid-April 2026, the Double trouble 4 14 2025 GEMINI .txt
arch 2026. Military escalation in the Middle East has effectively paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, while policy shifts in China and the EU are redrawing the global map of "who can buy from whom." Here is the high-fid
le the Strait of Hormuz is closed, there is talk of carriers returning to the **Suez Canal** to bypass the Cape of Good Hope detour. * **The "Double Arrival" Risk:** If vessels return to the Suez, they will arr
Region | Port | | ------------ | ------------ | | Morocco | Jorf Lasfar | | Saudi Arabia | Ras Al Khair | | China | Yantai | | US | Tampa | | Russia | Ust
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/What is DAP price in fertilizers.txt
ibility of your map, update these nodes with the following evidence: * **Node: Jorf Lasfar (Morocco):** Update to `risk_score: 8`. Evidence: **"Substitution Pressure."** As Gulf supply fails, Brazil and India a
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/The Calm Before the Storm you notes Gemini 3 15 2026 .txt
scarcity market**. The most critical action for Nestlé is to monitor the **EU's Article 27a** status—if the Commission doesn't pull that emergency brake by the end of March, the dairy COGS for the remainder of 2
Source: GEMI
/home/ocasey/mvp/incoming/Incoming_News_Reports/GEMI/The Calm Before the Storm you notes Gemini 3 15 2026 .txt
Cause & Effect Signals
Simple supply-chain transmission paths inferred from recent news.